This year’s 81st Golden Globe Awards ceremony may not look any different to viewers watching at home, but behind the scenes it’s another story. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the notoriously small and scandal-plagued group that used to select the winners, has been disbanded in favor of a more racially and ethnically diverse collection of 300 journalists from around the world. That means there will be a totally new voting body this year, with different tastes and perspectives than in years past. In other words, the winners will be even harder to predict than usual.
Will the Globes finally shake their reputation for being the “dumb Oscars” or will they fall back on familiar patterns? We won’t know the answer until the ceremony airs on January 7, but in keeping with tradition we’re going to make our predictions anyway. Here are our picks for the mostly likely winners in all 27 categories, across film and television. They might not all be the nominees we’d like to see win, but they are the ones we believe have the best chance of coming out on top.
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The Golden Globes will air on CBS and stream live via Paramount+ with Showtime on January 7.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
The nominees:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Who will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
There’s a lot of talent in this category, and each of these performances is special in their own way. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has the edge, though, because of the range and depth she brings to Mary in The Holdovers. Randolph holds the emotional center of the film, and when she falls apart it’s devastating. The role has already earned her a handful of Best Supporting Actress awards from several critics associations, including Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York, so her chances of adding a Golden Globe to the list are pretty good.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
The nominees:
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Who will win: Charles Melton
While awards analysts are favoring Robert Downey Jr. or even Ryan Gosling, we’re going out on a limb with an unconventional pick. There’s a path for May December’s Charles Melton to be a surprise upset winner in this category. He’s already been recognized by a few prestigious critics organizations and it’s been fascinating to see his rise from out of nowhere this awards season. Consider what it’s taken for him to get any kind of notice among the impressive names in this category. Melton was able to hold his own in the film against two powerful and seasoned performers in Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, and that’s no small feat. We’re predicting the Joe-mentum will carry him through.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
The nominees:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Lily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy Of A Fall
Who will win: Lily Gladstone
Even before the nominations come out, the Best Actress Oscar category is already shaping up to be a two woman race between Lily Gladstone for Killers Of The Flower Moon and Emma Stone for Poor Things. And just like last year, when Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh were the two top contenders, the split between drama and comedy/musical films means Gladstone and Stone won’t have to go up against each other at the Golden Globes. We’re not counting out a surprise win from someone like Carey Mulligan or Greta Lee, but Gladstone has a clear lead here heading into the final stretch.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
The nominees:
Andrew Scott, All Of Us Strangers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Who will win: Cillian Murphy
Talk of a potential Oscar for Cillian Murphy has been going on since Oppenheimer came out last summer, so this may be an obvious pick. Still, we think it’s the right one. There’s nothing that gets the hearts of awards voters fluttering like a prestige biopic with an actor who disappears into the role. Of course, that’s also true for Bradley Cooper’s Maestro. At this point the two actors are running a very close race, but we’re giving Murphy a slight advantage due to the cinematic scope of Oppenheimer in comparison to the more contained and intimate portrait of Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. We wouldn’t call it an upset if Cooper walks away with the statue, though.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
The nominees:
Alma Pötsti, Fallen Leaves
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Natalie Portman, May December
Who will win: Emma Stone
Emma Stone’s main competition in her bid for another Oscar, Killers Of The Flower Moon’s Lily Gladstone, isn’t in this category, so it’s a safe call to go with Stone for the win here. Not that the likes of Margot Robbie and Natalie Portman aren’t intimidatingly talented, their roles just weren’t as showy as this one. Stone brings a striking physicality and fierce determination to her Poor Things character Bella Baxter in a way that’s simply unmatched by anyone else this year.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
The nominees:
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
Matt Damon, Air
Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Timothée Chalamet, Wonka
Who will win: Paul Giamatti
Though Paul Giamatti’s character in The Holdovers is a bitter crank for most of the film, you can somehow tell that he’s having a blast playing this guy. You could also say that about many of the other actors in this category, but what sets him apart is the way he brings Mr. Hunham to life and makes us care about him, peeling away the outer layers and showing us the human being underneath, but never in a way that seems sappy or cliché. Where other actors might have tripped up in a role like this, Giamatti keeps it all in balance.
Best Director — Motion Picture
The nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Celine Song, Past Lives
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Who will win: Christopher Nolan
Christopher Nolan’s road to the Oscars begins with the Golden Globes. A win here will set him on a clear path as the director to beat this awards season. Best Director is one of only a few categories in which Oppenheimer is competing directly against its fraternal twin Barbie, and we can also never count out Martin Scorsese as a serious contender, but we believe Nolan will ultimately prevail due to the film’s sweeping scope and historical subject matter.
Best Motion Picture — Drama
The nominees:
Anatomy Of A Fall
Killers Of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone Of Interest
Who will win: Oppenheimer
It’s conceivable that Scorsese’s Killers Of The Flower Moon, or even an unexpected critical favorite like Anatomy Of A Fall, could surpass Oppenheimer in this category, but it makes sense to go with the film that received the most nominations (second only to Barbie, which isn’t competing in this category). It’s not only a prestigious film but a popular one, so the voters can feel good about appealing to both critics and audiences with this pick. We’re also predicting Nolan will will win for Best Director, and the two awards tend to go hand in hand.
Best Picture — Musical or Comedy
The nominees:
Air
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things
Who will win: Poor Things
It’s tempting to give this one to Barbie, the film that got the most nominations this year, but the voters have another opportunity to honor the pink blockbuster with this year’s new award for Cinematic and Box Office achievement. That leaves The Holdovers and Poor Things as the main contenders in this category. They’re very different films, each great in their own way, but Poor Things is an achievement of creativity and originality on another level, and that could make the difference.
Best Motion Picture — Animated
The nominees:
The Boy And The Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse
Suzume
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Wish
Who will win: Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse
The great Hayao Miyazaki did not come out of retirement only to not win a Golden Globe. Just kidding, the Globes are the furthest thing from his mind right now. That’s why—although we appreciate the master’s late-career achievement—we predict Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse will take home the award for best animated film, just like the original did in 2019. The sequel took everything that made that film good and improved upon it, so it’s hard to make a case for any of the other films surpassing it this year.
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
The nominees:
Barbie
Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part 1
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Who will win: Barbie
No one really knows what this newly added category is supposed to be, other than a way to name check popular movies that might not otherwise get a nomination. Cinematic achievement is one thing; profitability is something else. And wasn’t this race already decided by the box office numbers? It’s not a subjective measure. It’s kind of bonkers to pit Taylor Swift against John Wick, Mario, Spider-Man and Barbie (which sounds like a pretty fun costume party, actually) for the same award. That’s the kind of messy chaos we expect from the Globes, though. Since they’ve never given this award before, it’s hard to predict, but we’re going with Barbie since it fits both of the arbitrary parameters in the category.
Best Motion Picture — Non-English Language
The nominees:
Anatomy Of A Fall
Fallen Leaves
Io Capitano
Past Lives
Society Of The Snow
The Zone Of Interest
Who will win: Anatomy Of A Fall
Anatomy Of A Fall has consistently ranked high on critics’ lists of the year’s best films and is very likely headed for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars (it wasn’t submitted in the Foreign Language category there), so its chances for a win in this category are better than good. As much as it was a pleasant surprise to see nominations for Past Lives and The Zone Of Interest, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the voters don’t rule in favor of Anatomy Of A Fall.
Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
The nominees:
Celine Song, Past Lives
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Justine Triet, Arthur Harari, Anatomy Of A Fall
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Who will win: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
You may notice a trend in this category. With the exception of Poor Things, each of the films nominated was directed by a screenwriter, or half of a screenwriting team. It’s also not divided across genre lines like many of the other categories, which makes it not only one of the most competitive races but quite difficult to predict. Any one of these films could potentially win the award, and it would be well deserved in all cases, but based on the amount of nominations it received and for the sake of its originality, we predict Barbie will be the ultimate victor.
Best Original Score — Motion Picture
The nominees:
Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse
Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
Joe Hisaishi, The Boy And The Heron
Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Mica Levi, The Zone Of Interest
Robbie Robertson, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Who will win: Ludwig Göransson
If the story of this year’s Golden Globes is the dominance of Oppenheimer, as we suspect it will be, look for that trend to spread into the less prominent categories as well, like Best Original Score. There were a lot of beautiful scores this year, but Ludwig Göransson’s ambitious, organic musical soundscape for Oppenheimer helps set the pace and tone for the film like no other. Factoring that in, along with the sense that this is Nolan’s year, it adds up to another win for the epic biopic.
Best Original Song — Motion Picture
The nominees:
“Addicted To Romance” by Bruce Spingsteen, She Came To Me
“Dance The Night” by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Dua Lipa, and Caroline Ailin, Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie
“Peaches” by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmand, and John Spiker, The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“Road To Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz, Rustin
“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, Barbie
Who will win: “I’m Just Ken”
Before we get into Barbie’s domination in this category, let’s take a moment to appreciate the bold nomination of Jack Black’s “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie., which didn’t even make the Oscar shortlist. It’s one of those cases where the nomination is a win in itself. But back to Barbie and its three tracks included here. Musically, “What Was I Made For?” is probably the superior choice, but “I’m Just Ken” is such an important part of the film, and it got a sublime on-screen musical number, so we think it has the advantage.
Best Television Series — Drama
The nominees:
1923
The Crown
The Diplomat
The Last Of Us
The Morning Show
Succession
Who will win: Succession
If there’s a guarantee of anything at the Golden Globes this year, it’s a win for Succession as the best TV drama of the year. Nothing else in this category comes close to the cache and acclaim HBO’s prestige drama received in its final season. And being the final season, this is the last opportunity the voters will have to honor it. We don’t think they’ll pass up the opportunity, and expect a sweep in the other categories it was nominated for as well.
Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy
The nominees:
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Jury Duty
Only Murders In The Building
Ted Lasso
Who will win: The Bear
At last year’s Golden Globes the only award The Bear received was for lead actor Jeremy Allen White. But that was a different voting body, and it was just for season one. The truly excellent second season proved that it wasn’t just a fluke and highlighted the strong ensemble cast, so this time we think it will be appropriately rewarded. It’s certainly the best made show of the group, with Barry coming in a close second. Whether or not either of them actually qualifies as a comedy is another story.
Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made For Television
The nominees:
All The Light We Cannot See
Beef
Daisy Jones And The Six
Fargo
Fellow Travelers
Lessons In Chemistry
Who will win: Beef
This is another idiosyncratic Golden Globes category that lumps in a bunch of very different types of shows, but the most consistently praised among them this year has to be Netflix’s Beef. A thoughtful and artistic study of the ways we are connected and disconnected from each other in modern society, it sticks with you long after you finish watching. And for a show that dropped all the way back in April of last year, that’s a crucial asset. As is the excellent cast, who we think will also get their turns at the podium on Sunday night.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series — Drama
The nominees:
Bella Ramsey, The Last Of Us
Emma Stone, The Curse
Helen Mirren, 1923
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession
Who will win: Sarah Snook
Would it be wild to see Emma Stone win twice for Best Performance in a single evening? Absolutely, but we just don’t see that happening. Instead, we predict that Succession’s big night will include a win for Sarah Snook. She put everything on the table in her final season as Siobhan Roy and she had a hell of a highlight reel to submit for consideration. Snook won a Golden Globe for the role in 2022, but that year she was competing as Best Supporting Actress. Now she’s been appropriately upgraded to lead. The balcony fight with Matthew Macfadyen’s Tom alone is enough to justify a second trophy.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series — Drama
The nominees:
Brian Cox, Succession
Dominic West, The Crown
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Pedro Pascal, The Last Of Us
Who will win: Kieran Culkin
Everyone watched the final season of Succession in real time and said, “Give Kieran Culkin all the awards,” so it’s time to make good on that expectation. Culkin has always been very good on the show, but this season he was next-level great. Great enough, in fact, to steal this award away from fellow cast members and nominees Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox (both of whom won in previous years). Culkin gave us every note in the symphony of Roman’s extreme highs and lows in the arc of his personal and professional journey, right up to the bitter end. And unlike his castmates, Culkin has yet to win a Golden Globe, so it’s time to correct that oversight.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
The nominees:
Ayo Edibiri, The Bear
Elle Fanning, The Great
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Selena Gomez, Only Murders In The Building
Who will win: Ayo Edibiri
As is always the case, some of the winners this year are sure things and others are a tossup. This category happens to be the latter. It’s turning out to be a tight two-woman race between last year’s winner, Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson, and the breakout star of The Bear’s second season, Ayo Edibiri, who wasn’t even nominated in 2023. The Bear has gained momentum since then, and Edibiri herself has raised her profile considerably with films like Bottoms and even a guest appearance on Abbott Elementary, so this might be her year.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
The nominees:
Bill Hader, Barry
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building
Steve Martin, Only Murders In The Building
Who will win: Jeremy Allen White
The Bear became more of an ensemble show in the second season, but we still think Jeremy Allen White will score a back-to-back win for his deep and emotional performance as chef-turned-restaurateur Carmy Berzatto in the critically beloved series. As much as the story zoomed out to focus on other characters, Carmy was the center around which everything else turned. All of the actors in this category delivered exceptional performances in their respective shows this year, but White had arguably better material to work with and he nailed every curve the writers threw at him.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television
The nominees:
Ali Wong, Beef
Brie Larson, Lessons In Chemistry
Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death
Juno Temple, Fargo
Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers
Riley Keough, Daisy Jones And The Six
Who will win: Ali Wong
Beef is not an easy series to watch, and the character of Amy Lau is not easy to like; that’s kind of the whole point. In the hands of another actress it could have gone horribly wrong, but Wong brings an empathy to Amy that helps you understand the rage and dissatisfaction within her even as she does unconscionable things. It was one of the best performances we saw last year, and deserves to be recognized as such.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture made for Television
The nominees:
David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
Sam Clafin, Daisy Jones And The Six
Steven Yeun, Beef
Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers
Who will win: Steven Yeun
As great as Ali Wong is in Beef—and she really, really is—her best scenes in the series are the ones where she gets to act opposite series co-lead Steven Yeun. His character, Danny, is both her nemesis and spiritual twin. He’s also terrific individually as Danny searches for meaning in his own life, only to gradually spiral ever more out of control. It wouldn’t be right to give an acting award to one and not the other, so we’re predicting Wong and Yeun will both be honored in their respective categories.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television
The nominees:
Abby Elliot, The Bear
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
Meryl Streep, Only Murders In The Building
Who will win: Meryl Streep
Here’s where we might find out whether the new Golden Globes voters are as starstruck as the old HFPA used to be. In the old days we could have been relatively sure that Meryl Streep would run away with this award, but now there may be room for The Crown’s Elizabeth Debicki to sneak in for her performance as Lady Di. Streep is still our pick, though, not just because she’s Meryl Fucking Streep but because she was actually quite good in Only Murders In The Building as a meek actress who’s waited and struggled her entire career to be recognized for her talent. Talk about playing against type.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television
The nominees:
Alan Ruck, Succession
Alexander Skarsgård, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Who will win: Matthew Macfadyen
The Supporting Role category is another one where we’re getting a face-off between two powerhouse shows that are in different categories everywhere else. Although Ebon Moss-Bachrach killed it in this season of The Bear, he’ll have other chances to win in the future. So in the battle of The Bear versus Succession we’re predicting a win for Matthew Macfadyen, the actor who brought us so many iconic moments as Tom Wambsgans. He’ll still have some competition with co-stars Alan Ruck and Alexander Skarsgård in this category, but Macfadyen was an essential part of the fabric of the show in the final season. And besides, Tom ended up beating out all of the Roy siblings for the crown they so coveted, so he’s on a roll.
Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television
The nominees:
Amy Schumer, Emergency Contact
Chris Rock. Selective Outrage
Ricky Gervais, Armageddon
Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love
Trevor Noah: Where Was I
Wanda Sykes: I’m An Entertainer
Who will win: Chris Rock
We’ve already written about how boring this new Golden Globes category turned out to be. In the absence of any fresh or original talent here, voters were left to choose between a handful of established stand-up comics who still turned down the hosting gig despite their nominations. If we had to pick a winner, and we do because that’s why we’re here, we’d go with Chris Rock for the sake of irony. What a turn of fate it would be to go from being punched in front of the world at the Oscars to winning a Golden Globe for a comedy special that includes a riff about that very incident.
Cindy White writes for the A.V. Club, which like the Root, is owned by G/O Media
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